XAO Medium Term Update

The XAO is declining as previously anticipated with some strong support at the 3940 levels approaching.

The medium term view for a zig-zag correction on the XAO is shown below with the index anticipated to ease on the declines in the lead up to Christmas. Under the count below, the wave '2' top should not be broken.

XAO Short Term update

The chart below provides some additional insight on corrective Wave '2'.....

Medium Term Gold Update

Gold appears to be consolidating as a 4th wave triangle, labeled as wave 'iv' circle. The outlook is for gold to be range bound for several weeks before breaking upwards towards the $2000 level in anticipation of completing wave (5).

MACD is at an extreme at the top of wave 'iii' circle implying wave iv circle needs to unfold and when complete should break upwards to a new high.

Australian Interest Rates - lower

Outlined in this post in June was an anticipation of lower interest rates for the medium term. From the RBA web site today....

"At its meeting today, the Board decided to lower the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.5 per cent, effective 2 November 2011"

I'm yet to check the 90 day cash rate upon typing this post, but I wonder if it has dropped prior to the RBA decision, thus forcing the RBA to lower it's cash rate target. Will check later :-)

XAO - Short Term update

The corrective wave '2' appears complete. It has taken a little longer than anticipated - the fifth wave failure at the termination of 'b' shown circled initially threw off the count of the final leg up to complete '2'.

The XAO cannot drive higher beyond the end of '2' to remain valid in the short term. Expecting plenty of bears.